Oil News: Bullish Outlook Builds as China Demand and Trade Talks Drive Hope.Crude oil prices rebound 4.7% as trade optimism and strong China demand improve sentiment. OPEC supply plans remain a near-term cap on bullish oil outlook.

Standard Chartered Forecast: Pound Sterling Vulnerable, One-Month GBP/JPY Forecast 184.The Pound to Yen (GBP/JPY) exchange rate is currently trading around 193, but Standard Chartered considers it is within a bearish technical trend and maintains a negative stance on the Pound. It sees scope for GBP/USD to retreat to at least 1.30, but prefers to express its view by selling GBP/JPY.

Swiss Franc "Best Performing G10 Currency" Since Liberation Day.After a 7% rally versus the dollar since the April 2 tariffs, the Swiss franc has started to falter as inflation disappoints and the SNB sends clear signals that further easing is possible. “Swiss April CPI inflation registered a softer than expected flat y/y, while the core reading softened to 0.6% y/y from 0.9% y/y the previous.

Industrial production in Saudi Arabia expanded by 2.0% year-on-year in March 2025, after an upwardly revised 0.3% rise in the previous month. It marked the fastest growth in industrial output since last December, due to rises in manufacturing output (5.1%), supported by an increase in chemicals and chemical products (14.3%) and food products (6.9%). Also, water supply, sewerage, and waste management & remediation activities surged 15.0%. Additionally, mining & quarrying activity shrank softer (-0.2% vs -0.7% in February), as the country's oil production fell to 8.96 million barrels per day from 8.97 million in March 2024. On the other hand, electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply recorded a 0.9% decline. On a monthly basis, industrial output increased by 1.1%, following an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in February.

Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast: Yen Faces Pressure as Japan GDP and US CPI Loom Large.As BoJ pivots and risk appetite climbs, USD/JPY gains momentum. This week's data may reset expectations on rate paths.

S&P500: Defensive Rotation Builds as Inflation, Tariffs Shape Forecast.US stock market stalls as S&P500 faces resistance. Trade talks, Fed signals, and CPI data drive next week's market sentiment and forecast.

Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention.Last week was dominated by developments out of the US and UK, not just because of monetary policy decisions, but also the unexpected announcement of a US-UK trade deal. Fed's hold and BoE's cut were were largely overshadowed by the surprise trade breakthrough.

Week Ahead: Reaction to Sino-American Trade Talks, US CPI, Japan and UK Q1 GDP, and Banxico to Cut 50 bp Featured.Many seemed optimistic that the weekend trade talks between the US and China will de-escalate the tension. We are less sanguine.

Pound Sterling Upside Limited by Euro Strength, UK Growth Risks: Rabobank.Foreign exchange strategists at Rabobank maintain a cautiously constructive outlook for Sterling, forecasting the Pound-to-Dollar rate at 1.32 and the Euro-to-Pound rate at 0.87 on a 12-month timeline. However, the bank sees the British Pound struggling to regain its former leadership among G10 currencies as political risks and relative.

The annual inflation rate in Rwanda accelerated for the second consecutive month to 6.6% in April 2025, up from 4.9% in the previous month. This marked the highest inflation rate since November 2023, as prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose the most in 16 months (8.2% vs. 3.5% in March), mainly due to a 34.7% surge in meat prices and an 8.5% rise in prices for milk, cheese, and eggs. Additionally, prices increased at a faster pace for restaurants and hotels (11.9% vs. 10.8%) and for furnishings and household equipment (5.1% vs. 4.8%). Meanwhile, prices moderated for housing and utilities (2.6% vs. 2.7%) and transport (3.0% vs. 11.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased by 2.3%, the most in 14 months, following a 1.9% rise in March.

Japanese Yen Forecast: Trade Talks Set Binary Trap for USD/JPY.Markets are placing bets on both economic data and diplomacy this week. USD/JPY strength has returned, but it now hinges on trade talks showing progress and U.S. data avoiding another soft patch.

Car sales in Indonesia grew by 5% year-on-year to 51,205 units in April 2025, rebounding from a 5.1% decline in the previous month. The rebound was due to a low base effect last year, as the Eid al-Fitr festival fell in April. In the first four months of this year, car sales shrank by 2.9% year-on-year to 256,368 units, compared to 264,014 units in the same period of 2024. The Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO) has set a car sales target for 2025 between 750,000 and 900,000 units. This forecast surpasses the revised 2024 projection of 850,000 units and exceeds last year’s actual sales of 865,723 units. On a monthly basis, car sales plunged by 27.8% in April 2025, following a 1.9% drop in March, amid fewer working days due to the long Eid al-Fitr holiday.

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt accelerated to 13.9% in April 2025, up from 13.6% in March, aligning with expectations. This marked the second consecutive month of rising inflation and the fastest pace since January, due to faster rises in prices of housing and utilities (13.9% vs 13.0% in March), transport (37.4% vs 33.9%), recreation and culture (20.8% vs 19.7%), and restaurants and hotels (16.9% vs 15.0%). Meanwhile, prices moderated for food and non-alcoholid beverages (6.0% vs 6.6%), clothing and footwear (17.4% vs 23.0%), furnishings, household equipment, routine maintenance (15.2% vs 15.6%), communications (12.3% vs 12.4%), miscellaneous goods and services (14.5% vs 15.0%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (15.9% vs 25.0%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.3% in April 2025, the smallest increase in four months, easing from a 1.6% gain in March, which was the highest in six months.

Markets Weekly Outlook – US-China Trade Talks & Global Economic Data.Wall Street indexes are looking to finish the week with gains after a shaky start earlier in the week. Improved sentiment and the pending US-China meeting over a potential trade deal this weekend has kept market participants on the optimistic side.

China’s producer prices fell by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, slightly underperforming market expectations of a 2.6% decline and following a 2.5% drop in March. This marked the 31st consecutive month of producer deflation and the steepest fall since last October.